About - Pine Economics

The Mission

Transport transformation fails too often — not for lack of good ideas, but for lack of credible evidence. Ambitious plans never hit the ground because they lack the evidence for a robust economic and strategic case. And so we default to what's easy to approve — not because it works better, but because the analytical frameworks already exist, it’s the path of least resistance.

The problem isn't the vision. It's the gap between what we know works and what we can prove works to the standards decision-makers need when they're carrying real risk.

The mission of Pine Economics is to close that gap. To bring the same analytical rigor to transformative transport that's long been standard for conventional schemes. To build frameworks that don't just satisfy legal requirements — they empower leaders to make bold decisions with confidence.

The Approach

Our approach is built on three core principles:

Analytical Rigour: Diving deep into the evidence, models, and appraisal methods to ensure every recommendation is built on a solid, defensible foundation. We're fluent in the requirements of the Green Book and Transport Analysis Guidance, ensuring our work meets the highest standards of scrutiny.

Strategic Narrative: Translating complex economic analysis into clear, compelling narratives that resonate with decision-makers, stakeholders, and the public. Many projects fail not because they lack a strong case, but because nobody understands their rationale. We change that by actively seeking clear, simple narratives that fit the evidence.

Collaborative Problem-Solving: Engaging directly with stakeholders to understand their aspirations and constraints. This ensures our solutions are not only technically sound but also politically and commercially deliverable.

Notable Projects

Rescuing a Bus Franchising Business Case

A Mayoral Combined Authority's bus franchising business case had struggled to gain approval, putting a critical reform initiative at risk.

The Challenge: With political timelines tightening and stakeholder confidence eroding, the business case needed fundamental remediation—not just cosmetic fixes—to meet regulatory standards and public scrutiny.

The Approach: Established a high-cadence engagement model: three intensive workshops and weekly update calls ensured rapid problem-solving and kept all parties aligned as we rebuilt the case from the ground up.

The Process: Forensically reviewed the underlying analysis, strengthened operational cost data through direct operator engagement, refocused the narrative on core regulatory benefits, and overhauled the operational plan to address stakeholder concerns.

The Outcome: Within four months, the business case secured external approval and progressed to public consultation—transforming a stalled initiative into an approved pathway for reform.

Delivering Economic Analysis for the Rail Reform

The UK rail reform plan required robust economic analysis to estimate benefits and identify potential savings across a complex, uncertain landscape.

The Challenge: High uncertainty in data and outcomes threatened to undermine confidence in the economic case, risking either overly cautious recommendations or unrealistic projections that could erode stakeholder trust.

The Approach: Developed an innovative uncertainty assessment framework that didn't hide risk—it quantified and communicated it. By scoring each saving initiative across different confidence levels, I gave decision-makers the full picture rather than false precision.

The Process: With a team of analysts, we modeled outcomes at multiple confidence levels, enabling stakeholders to understand the uncertainty and judge the risks for themselves.

The Outcome: The methodology became the analytical backbone of the economic case, enabling informed decisions and earning the trust of government stakeholders through transparency and rigor.

Shaping National Bus Policy

A central government transport department needed clear guidance to help local authorities choose the right procurement model for reforming local bus services.

The Challenge: With multiple procurement models used globally and limited evidence on what drives success in different contexts, local authorities lacked confidence in selecting approaches that would deliver on cost and quality.

The Approach: We designed an international benchmarking study examining bus procurement models from around the world to understand risk allocation, collaboration processes, evaluation methodologies, and commercial models—unpacking the economic drivers behind each model's performance.

The Process: With a team, we analysed primary sources and interviewed stakeholders, bus operators, and procurement specialists to build a comprehensive evidence base that connected model design to real-world results.

The Outcome: We delivered a clear decision-making framework enabling authorities to select procurement methodologies and commercial models based on objective criteria aligned to their goals. The work's impact extended beyond guidance—it subsequently led to a detailed implementation project.

Train Service Frequency

A central government transport department needed a consistent, transparent policy for determining train service levels.

The Challenge: Without a systematic approach, decisions on train frequencies were inconsistent and lacked transparency, making it difficult to justify service changes or engage constructively with Train Operating Companies.

The Approach: Development of an innovative framework to systematically estimate and compare rail demand potential between different origin-destination pairs, creating an objective basis for service level decisions.

The Process: Designed a methodology that translated complex demand patterns into clear, comparable metrics that could support evidence-based timetabling discussions.

The Outcome: An easy-to-use spreadsheet model that allowed decision-makers to quickly and transparently estimate a justifiable train frequency for every rail link, based on robust data and transparent methodology.

About Pine Economics